Did someone read that absurd analysis to the Michigan Wolverines before they got on their charter for Eugene, Ore.? They certainly played as if they had read their e-mail. Or is Notre Dame that bad?

Carr’s first mistake was agreeing to open the home-and-home series outside of Ann Arbor, in Eugene, under the Nike skybox of Oregon alumnus Phil Knight, who makes all those Michigan swooshes. Carr deferred the 2002 series’ opener to this season’s road opener Saturday because he thought Michigan’s 2002 nonconference schedule was overloaded, according to Keith Jackson of ABC Sports.

So the Wolverines instead left their Big House for the Duck Pond and played before half the capacity of Michigan Stadium, a record crowd of 59,023 in Autzen Stadium, the House That Phil Built.

And Michigan acted like Notre Dame, having possession for only 56 seconds in the first quarter and then falling under a 21-0 second-quarter Oregon surge to trail by halftime, 21-6, with only 45 yards at the break. Michigan rallied to cut the deficit to 21-13 and to 24-21 in the fourth quarter but allowed a punt to be blocked close to its goal-line. Three Ducks chased the oblong egg into the end zone and one recovered it for a touchdown and the 31-27 upset of the best team in the nation for a week. Perry, who had averaged 183 yards a game, was limited to 26, and for the fourth consecutive time, Michigan (3-1) lost its road opener.

The Michigan offense looked disorganized when it was trailing by only 24-21 and it looked more panicky when the deficit became 10. Quarterback John Navarre, a fifth-year senior, who was a freshman in 1999 when Super Bowl winner Tom Brady was the senior quarterback, saw his Heisman Trophy dreams fade in a New York minute.

Navarre was tentative, waiting too long to release the ball, probably because he had to pass an uncharacteristic 56 times. His footwork was uneven; his left foot was moving before the center snapped the ball into his hand. He was overshooting his receivers. And when they had a chance for spectacular catches, they either did not use two hands, or the officials, watching the play from Portland, ruled a trap on Michigan’s next-to-last drive.

With 5:10 to play, Oregon’s Justin Phinisee intercepted a Navarre pass and returned it to the Oregon 24-yard line, prompting Jackson to exclaim about the defender, “Lo and behold, look what I found, Mama!”

But Mike Bellotti, the Oregon coach, gave Michigan a gift with 3:05 to play. With 4th-and-8 at the Michigan 35, Oregon ran the ball instead of trying a punt or a field goal, which left viewers incredulous. Bellotti did not trust his kicking unit in a game marked by special-teams play (Oregon blocked two punts for touchdowns, one a 61-yard runback, and two extra-point attempts; and Michigan blocked a field goal for a 78-yard touchdown).

Michigan zipped up the field in 73 seconds to make the score 31-27 on a screen pass across the middle to Steve Breaston for a 36-yard touchdown at 2:18, and tried to kick the extra point. But Oregon (4-0) blocked the kick, prompting a wag to quip, “That’s why special teams are so important. That’s why they’re special.”

Michigan got another gift from the Field Turf when the squibbed kickoff took a high bounce off the hands of Oregon’s Tim Day and Braylon Edwards recovered. But they had taken their last timeout.

Then came a first-down on an over-the-defender catch by Edwards at the Oregon 44, a 7-yard sack, the disputed catch with 1:24 to play and a 12-yard completion on 3rd and 17.

When another Navarre pass went too high, Jackson exclaimed, “Now it’s fourth down.”

Except that was fourth down, and Michigan had lost possession. Maize-and blue helmets sunk on the sideline. Tears flowed. And Jackson had fumbled for one of the rare times in a legendary career.

Bellotti, in his ninth year as coach, had just won a Rose Bowl-type game (just like the Pacific 10 beating the Big Ten on New Year’s Day), and he had done it by preaching all week that his Ducks were not playing the maize-and-blue helmet and were not playing the uniform and were not playing the block letter M.

“The won by never giving up,” Bellotti said. I’m very proud of my Ducks today.”

The Waste Land that is New York on a College Football Saturday did not react to the pending upset of Michigan until the score was 24-21 and 10 minutes remained. That is when some genius in the ABC studios let New York, where there are the most Michigan alumni outside of the state of Michigan, watch the game. Oklahoma’s 59-27 rout of U.C.L.A. had been the main event. No wonder ratings are as far down as U.C.L.A.

In another Manhattan, this one is Kansas, the third of the three M’s who visited Kansas State for a $400,000 payoff to sweeten the Wildcats’ victory column came away with a big upset. Marshall, from the toughest non-B.C.mesS. conference, stunned Bill Snyder and his Mildcats, 29-21. Unlike McNeese State and Massachusetts, Marshall, of the Mid-American Conference, was no pushover on the powderpuff nonconference schedule Kansas State plays.

And later Saturday, Northern Illinois’s 16-10 upset of Alabama and Toledo’s 35-31 upset of Pittsburgh gave the M.A.C. five upsets of B.C.S. teams this season. The big M.A.C.!