• Penn State will have a fourth losing season in its last five.

• Penn State will not make a bowl trip for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

• George Scott Paterno will finish second in the 17th Congressional race in Pennsylvania.

• John Forbes Kerry will be succeed the nation's No. 1 football fan as President.

• And Joseph Vincent Paterno will be resign, taking his offensive coordinator, line coaches, quarterbacks coach and receivers' coach with him.

... unless there is an October surprise.

And there is only one fleeting week left for any October surprise, which for Penn State would be establishing an offense after four consecutive pathetic weeks of no offense.

That a modern era Penn State team would be involved in a 6-to-4 Big Ten Conference football game is incredulous, especially on Homecoming Day before 108,000 alumni and friends wondering where the blue and white went. The last time 6-to-4 was a significant score was in the Chicago lyric. In Penn State history there have been two other 6-4 games, but that was back in 1907 and 1929 (when Joe Paterno was 2), when a pumpkin was a football. The last time Penn State played in 6-4 game was a victory at Syracuse on Nov. 2, 1929. The last time Penn State lost by 6-4 was at Navy on Nov. 16, 1907.

That a modern era Penn State team would have an extra week to prepare for Iowa and not score a point on offense is incredible. And who was the drunken opening oddsmaker who had Penn State favored by two-and-a-half points? The line shifted to Iowa favored by 2, which meant no one won that bet.

And that there still was not a running game in a game honoring the College Hall-of-Famer Lydell Mitchell is inexcusable.

Penn State has lost its last four games this season to ranked teams and has lost its last 11 to ranked teams since the 2002 triumph at Wisconsin. It has lost 10 of its last Big Ten games. Its record since a 9-0 start in 1999 is 25-34. Maybe the Big Ten was a bad move. Penn State recently has become the conference powerbroker: four teams that beat the Nittany Lions plus Michigan are in this week's Bowl Championship Series poll.

The Nittany Lions are 2-5 with Iowa next, then at Ohio State (4-3) Oct. 30, Northwestern (3-4) at home Nov. 6, at Indiana (2-5) Nov. 13 and Michigan State (4-3) at home Nov. 20. That could mean a fourth losing season -- after the 1-3 slide since Homecoming 1999 to a 9-3 finish in 1999 and in the last five years: 5-7 (2000), 5-6 (2001), 9-4 (2002), 3-9 (2003) and 2-5 (2004).

If a company were in the red for four of the last five seasons, the C.E.O. would have been replaced by now.

On the other side of the ball, the defense is excellent, one of the nation's best, executing a weekly clinic on how to power down the conference's best offenses. But it is frustrated about its nonsupport from the offense. If this were a couple, there would be a divorce.

Among the 117 Division I-A teams, Penn State is No. 14 in scoring defense, No. 17 in total defense, No. 18 in pass defense and No. 30 in rushing defense.

"It’s frustrating, I won't lie," defensive tackle Ed Johnson said moments after yet another humiliating setback. "We’re out there doing everything that we can, but it feels like it’s not good enough."

For the second consecutive season Penn State has started 0-4 in the Big Ten, but senior quarterback Zack Mills, the offensive captain, said this team is better.

"We have the same record, but the attitude's there," Mills said. "Guys have been behaving themselves off the field, and we haven't had those problems that distract the team, and yet we will have not been able to get it done. It's very frustrating."

Paterno said the offensive struggles were due to "consistency, concentration and poise."

"It's definitely not a lack of effort," he said. "This is a good bunch of kids, and that's probably one of the reasons I feel so bad. They've done everything I've asked them to do as far as practicing and behaving and all the other little things we've tried to promote in our program."

Paterno said he planned to evaluate his personnel this week. He should start with his offensive coaching staff.

This team was supposed to be better. "Coordinating Change" was the proclamation on the cover of the Town and Gown's preseason magazine. The offensive line was supposed to be better; the receivers were supposed to be better; the running backs Tony Hunt and Byron Scott were supposed to be better; the field-goal place-kicker was supposed to be better; and Michael Robinson was supposed to be one of the best college football player in the country. Instead he has become one of the most underused.

Were Mills, Paterno, Town and Gown and the beat writers who picked anywhere from 7-5 to 9-3 all delusional? Paterno might be. He said the offensive line was "horrible" and "terrible" after the Purdue game and then he mitigated that assessment a week later after looking at the film.

Since Robinson has become the team's most reliable receiver, returning him to quarterback minimizes the passing game. Penn State had a Paterno career-low six first downs last weekend, only one by rushing. It had 51 rushing yards on 29 carries and only 96 yards on 9 competitions of 28 passes. Four other passes were completed to Iowa.

None of the offensive areas have been able to get untracked on a consistent basis. In Penn State's five losses, the offense has scored a total of 30 points, which used to be a game score. Of the 117 Division I-A teams, Penn State is No. 86 in rushing offense -- below No. 54 Temple (Class of '63), for god's sake. Penn State is No. 62 in passing, No. 83 in total offense and No. 103 in scoring.

Fran Ganter shouldered the criticism and the blame for last year's offensive ineptness during the 3-9 season, Paterno's worst, and moved into a new administrative job. Paterno then hired allegedly one of the best offensive minds in the country, Galen Hall, who was coaching an N.F.L. Europe team. Is this Hall's season of adjustment? Is this his wasted down?

On 15 possessions against Iowa, Penn State had 5 turnovers (4 interceptions and a fumble), punted 7 times, missed 2 field goals and awkwardly let the first-half clock run down, One drive lasted 10 seconds; another 23 seconds -- about the time it takes to back out of a driveway. The longest drive was 4:45 to the Iowa 14 before it was intercepted. Earlier, four plays from the Iowa 9 led to a missed 25-yard field goal.

Paterno could have his worst season ever, a nightmare for a legend who wants to go out a winner, unless there is an October surprise: 2-9.

There's no defense for that.